Even if the regime survives, it has entered its terminal phase, which could last months or years, but it has nothing left to offer but martyrdom. All indications are that it will, and apparently soon. Despite this, unless there is a split between the Revolutionary Guard and the traditional armed forces or an unexpected collapse of the theocratic regime, the ayatollahs will survive as the dominant power, although never as weakened as they are now.
On the other hand, if the US does not act alongside Israel as it did last June, the truth is that no other countries are interested in defending the protesters who have been massacred in the streets. Therefore, in Iran, the fight is not only against religious tyranny, but something rarely seen in the West is also taking place: chants in support of the US and Israel.
It has become clear that Russia and China, as in Venezuela and the Twelve-Day War, are not going to confront the US, while the former European colonial powers continue to sink into irrelevance. Moreover, it is a very different region of the world, where too many people offer opinions based on ignorance, and are therefore repeatedly caught off guard. This is what happened with the armed conflict between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as they supported different factions. Ultimately, UAE troops had to withdraw from Yemen because, although united against the Houthis, the UAE supported an independence group that ultimately lost, while the Saudis back the internationally recognized government. This demonstrates that, in addition to forming alliances, the petrostates in the Gulf also compete with each other.
In the West, it is also difficult to understand why Egypt, perhaps the most important of the Arab countries, decided to buy gas from Israel, which extracts it from its territorial waters, instead of acquiring it from those Arab countries that have abundant gas reserves. Moreover, the $35 billion figure makes it one of the most significant economic deals in Israel's history, and it's interesting to read the Egyptians' explanation that they value the country's "stability" and the guarantee of supply. This is part of a new reality where the Arab world supported Israel in its war against Iranian aggression on seven fronts, which involved mobilizing its proxies. This cost Tehran a fortune and partially explains its current economic crisis.
As demonstrated in the Twelve-Day War, Mossad possesses top-tier intelligence on what is happening in Iran, but it is still surprising that both Sunni Arab countries and Israel are advising Trump to exercise caution, as they fear, above all, what will happen afterward. The US—as on other occasions—doesn't seem to have a plan for what would happen if the ayatollahs are ousted from power.
The Balochistan rebellion, which claims that historical territory, even resorting to terrorist means, and which, operating from another Islamic country like Pakistan, provoked a missile exchange in 2024 where Iran backed down because Pakistan is a Sunni country and also possesses nuclear weapons. In short, Iran is a great nation with a magnificent history, distorted by Islamist extremism.
It is this that is feared: that the end of such a perverse regime will bring with it the reappearance of many problems to which there is no way to respond, just as happened to the US after the second Gulf War, where they easily defeated Saddam in 2003, and although he was hanged by the new Iraqi authorities, so many internal conflicts arose that the US was forced to withdraw, and Iraq ended up dependent on and controlled by Iran, its old enemy.
In any case, the current situation is different. The regime remains in denial, failing to grasp the depth of its defeat at the hands of Israel. Not only were proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas subdued, but the defeat in the 12-day war was total, and the regime was unable to defend itself against the bombings, nor could it protect its high command and the group in charge of the nuclear program, who were eliminated. Nevertheless, the leadership has defiantly continued to threaten Israel and the US with missile attacks, while simultaneously maintaining the threat that the missile program and the construction of the nuclear bomb would be sustained by domestic industry and scientists. Not only Israel fears an attack, but also the US at its military bases and Arab countries, although the damage in all cases would be limited.
The difference from the past is that the regime's current attitude is not a product of its former arrogance, but rather the simple result of its fear of losing Iran, the one thing it cannot relinquish, as it is the foundation of its power to wage global jihad. Since October 7, 2023, this has become a matter of national security, as in Europe and the US, the streets have been filled not only with Judeophobia, but also with chants against the US and the very idea of the West.
Everything has gone wrong for Iran, as it has weakened since 2023 while Israel has strengthened, including enjoying a healthy economy despite having fought a war on multiple fronts. This is what, according to Israeli analysts, continues to make the Iranian ayatollahs dangerous, since the one thing they cannot afford to lose is their control of Iran. Without it, they have nothing, and this is the reason they have unleashed such inhumane and terrible repression, which the rest of the world has witnessed, even though the regime has cut off the internet, thanks to Elon Musk making Starlink satellites available to the protesters.
Even if the regime survives, it has entered its terminal phase, which could last months or years, but it has nothing left to offer but martyrdom. Today, it lacks the weaponry to wage war against Israel or the US, let alone both, but no one can rule out the possibility of a limited attack targeting the civilian population, this time with biological or chemical weapons. And although neutralized by Israel, they maintain a respectable drone program, which has proven so vital to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. The official, false narrative is different, where even the Iranian president, moderate compared to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah, says he is in “total war” with “the US, Israel and Europe”.
President Trump has placed himself in a position where his statements in defense of the repressed and murdered protesters practically compel him to take military action. In this context, what he considered "good news" (the suspension of court-ordered executions) arrived opportunely, seemingly postponing a previously made decision to intervene, likely a "one-way" intervention, as was the case with both the attack on nuclear sites and the removal of Maduro from Caracas. In any case, there are already events that demonstrate the seriousness of the US, including precedents showing the imminence of action, such as the deployment to the region of ships carrying land, air, and naval assets, and the request for its citizens to leave Iran. However, we will only know the moment of the attack when that silence descends, a silence that speaks to the prelude—that is, the total control of all communications.
In any case, the regime committed an unforgivable error, handing the US and Israel another piece of good news. By activating its entire air defense system, it laid bare its hand regarding how and where it would defend itself. According to NBC, if there is a US attack, "Trump would only consider military action if it delivers a swift and decisive blow against the regime in Iran." For now, according to the US Treasury Secretary, the regime's leaders are reportedly withdrawing their money from the country. However, among Arabs, the prevailing question is whether such a close ally as the Saudis, the same ally they were after the Twelve-Day War, will assume power in Iran after the fall of the ayatollahs.
According to them, the US will not step in after its failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, and a small country like Israel simply cannot. But as Israel discovered in Lebanon in 2000 and in Gaza in 2005, unilateral withdrawals don't exist in the Middle East. Instead, irregular armed groups occupy the spaces abandoned by states, producing even more suffering. Then it was Hezbollah and Hamas; now it could be extremist groups within the Revolutionary Guard.
But the bottom line is that, unlike previous protest movements, now, even though they remain in power, the deterioration and decline of the Islamic Revolution is unstoppable. In my opinion, what is truly remarkable about what is happening in Iran are two things. The first has to do with the fanaticism and antisemitism of the ayatollahs, which has ultimately destroyed Iran. There was no territorial dispute between Israel and Iran, nor any conflict with a country with which Tehran had been allied during the Shah's reign. The rupture was generated solely by Islamist ideology, confirming a long-standing theme in world history: Judeophobia ultimately destroys those it hates. The Islamic Revolution was crushed and consumed by its own hatred, and there is ample evidence of this, not only historically but also in the biblical narrative, which chronicles how many empires and regimes before, during, and after ancient Israel were ultimately defeated, and many even disappeared.
We find a modern-day version of this in Delcy Rodríguez, now under Trump's command, who could think of nothing better than to claim that Maduro's capture had "a Zionist tinge," or in Boric, who is leaving the presidency of Chile having changed his mind on many issues, except for one: his complete rejection of Israel. His statements have always confirmed the Judeophobia that motivated him.
The second point concerns a colossal hypocrisy, characteristic of our times. It's the hypocrisy of major international media outlets, renowned universities, human rights organizations, feminist groups, and LGBTQ+ groups that have protested and marched in the streets for other causes, such as Gaza, but have maintained complete silence on the situation in Iran. This is particularly evident in the antisemitism of numerous Hollywood figures. In short, there have been no freedom flotillas or Free Iran movements for the women assaulted by the Morality Police.
This situation also reflects poorly on those who have defended narco-dictatorships like Venezuela's after the capture of a leader who was not elected, but rather a dictator. In Iran, the borders protected a religious tyranny whose fanaticism murdered thousands of protesters without these same people offering any criticism. Therefore, we know, even if they didn't say so, what position they would have taken in Venezuela. The point is that there is no article in International Law that protects dictatorships or tyrannies under any pretext, I repeat, because the antecedent of International Law is the so-called Law of Nations (and it is
Could it be that, as on other occasions, Israel won the war but lost the peace? Is a scenario beginning to take shape where the US and Israel are distancing themselves on how to approach the next stages? Meanwhile, Turkey's invitation to Erdogan only adds to the uncertainty. Perhaps this situation exists while Gaza remains almost halved in a new reality: the yellow line of the ceasefire. From the border to that line, the area will remain in Israeli hands, while the entire population towards the sea will remain under Hamas control.
If that were the case, without Hamas's disarmament, there is no doubt that Israel would have failed in Gaza. Therefore, pressure should increase for the prime minister's resignation and early elections, since, in this scenario, the responsibility from the State of Israel's perspective would have a name and surname: Benjamin Netanyahu, the architect of the Israeli response to the Hamas invasion, who forced decisions that did not yield the promised results, and for which he should be held accountable.
An Israel that, should it be attacked again, is prepared both to continue its efforts to eliminate Hamas and to respond to Iran with even greater force than in June 2025. This time, not even the "supreme leader" would be immune to reprisals. Furthermore, to Iran's detriment, Israel has gained a significant advantage by being the first country to recognize Somaliland. This allows for a much closer Israeli military presence to the Houthis, while simultaneously strengthening Tel Aviv's relationship with a neighboring country to Iran—a Muslim country where they are very welcome, as is the case with Azerbaijan, which played a significant role in Mossad operations last year.
Ultimately, these are advantages undoubtedly aided by the rapprochement with Sunni Arab countries in this rapidly changing world, where Israel has unveiled another technological advancement, the so-called "Iron Beam," the first operational laser shield capable of intercepting missiles and drones, but with an added benefit: it costs only pennies on the dollar, unlike current systems that cost thousands of dollars per shot.
Iran and Hamas bring to mind Carl von Clausewitz's observation that "there is only one decisive victory, the last," since in the Middle East, conflicts always seem to lead to new ones.
@israelzipper
Master's and PhD in Political Science (University of Essex). Law Degree (University of Barcelona), Lawyer (University of Chile), former presidential candidate (Chile, 2013)
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