Almost 126 million adults in the US could live with obesity in the next decade

 

The IHME study projects that obesity will affect 126 million American adults by 2035. (Illustrative Image Infobae)

The projections are based on official data collected over more than three decades by federal agencies.

The number of American adults affected by obesity could increase by 19 million by 2035, reaching nearly 126 million people, according to a study published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on January 28, 2026. The study warns that the disease will have a significant impact on national public health and health care costs over the next decade.

Researchers analyzed the body mass index (BMI) of more than 11 million Americans, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). According to their findings, the prevalence of obesity in adults has doubled in the last 30 years, going from 19.3% in 1990 to 42.5% in 2022. The IHME projects that the number of adults with obesity will reach 46.9% of the adult population in 2035.

Obesity in the United States has doubled its prevalence in the last three decades and is expected to reach almost 47% of adults in 2035. (Illustrative Image Infobae)

Obesity in the United States represents a major health challenge, with an estimated cost exceeding $200 billion in direct medical expenditures in 2019, according to data published in JAMA. The IHME report identifies important differences according to age, sex, region and ethnic origin, and links the phenomenon to social, economic and environmental factors that deepen health inequalities.

What projections does the study establish on obesity in adults?

The IHME study published in JAMA estimates that the United States will go from 107 million adults with obesity in 2022 to 126 million in 2035. The projection indicates that nearly half of the adult population will be obese within ten years, a figure that maintains the increasing trend observed since 1990.

The report states that, between 1990 and 2022, the number of adults with obesity more than doubled and the prevalence increased in all states. The analysis, based on data from more than 11 million participants, concludes that the growth rate will be maintained in the next decade, which would consolidate obesity as one of the most common conditions among adults in the country.

How does the prevalence of obesity vary by sex, age, region and ethnic group?

The IHME results show that women have higher rates of obesity than men, a difference that is amplified in the southern states of the United States. The age group with the highest prevalence corresponds to adults between 45 and 64 years old, while the study highlights a more rapid increase among women under 35 years of age.

The age group most affected by obesity are adults between 45 and 64 years old, while the fastest increase is observed in women under 35. (Illustrative Image Infobae)

Research also documents significant disparities by race and ethnicity. The analysis reveals that black women have the highest prevalence of obesity, followed by Hispanic women. These differences, according to the authors, are related to factors such as income, access to health services, availability of healthy foods and opportunities for physical activity.

What factors explain the advance of obesity in the United States?

According to the IHME report, obesity responds to a combination of causes that include limited access to healthy foods, characteristics of the urban and rural environment, and reduced levels of physical activity. The authors emphasize that differences in prevalence reflect social and structural inequalities that affect different population groups.

“Obesity is a consequence of a set of multifactorial factors, including accessibility to healthy foods, characteristics of the built environment and levels of physical activity,” explained lead researcher Catherine O. Johnson in statements reported by ABC News. The study highlights that the gaps between regions, races and socioeconomic levels have not decreased in recent years and, in some cases, have widened.

How do diagnostic criteria affect national statistics?

The IHME study used body mass index (BMI) as the main criterion to define obesity. However, the authors warn that the medical community is analyzing the possibility of incorporating other indicators, such as the proportion of body fat and general health, in the diagnostic definition.

According to the analysis cited by ABC News, if these new criteria are adopted, more than 75% of American adults could be classified as obese. This change could have a significant impact on national statistics and prevention and treatment strategies.

Social, economic and environmental factors, along with limited access to healthy foods, explain the advance of obesity in the United States. (Illustrative image Infobae)

What consequences does obesity have for health and the economy?

Obesity increases the risk of suffering from chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, high blood pressure and certain types of cancer, according to data from the IHME. The study warns that the earlier onset of obesity, especially among young women, is associated with a longer time of exposure to these risks.

Obesity-related medical costs accounted for more than $200 billion in 2019, according to the report published in JAMA. Expenses are projected to begin rising in the coming years, which could put additional pressure on the American healthcare system.

What actions do experts and institutions propose in this scenario?

The IHME report, cited by ABC News, maintains that public prevention policies and equitable access to treatments are essential to modify the observed trend. “Public health strategies that achieve tangible results, along with increased access to clinical interventions, are critical to turning the tide,” Johnson said.

The study points to the importance of the role of health professionals in education, early diagnosis and patient support. It also highlights the need to improve the food environment and encourage physical activity in all population groups.

Do new obesity medications influence the current trend?

The IHME study did not delve into the impact of weight loss medications, such as GLP-1 agonists, although it mentions that previous research reported a slight decrease in the prevalence of obesity in 2024 attributed to their use, according to data cited by ABC News. The authors consider that access to these treatments could modify the rate of growth of obesity, although they warn that public and social policies continue to be decisive.

What can we expect in the coming years?

The projected advance of obesity in the United States reinforces the demand for comprehensive policies, innovation in prevention and health care strategies, and reduction of social inequalities. The IHME study, published by JAMA and ABC News, concludes that obesity will continue to affect millions of adults in the country, with direct implications for public health, the economy, and the planning of health services.